What Path Will Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood Choose?

"based on the Brotherhood’s doctrinal literature and actual behavior, it is clear that the core of the organization centers on an ideology of an “Islamist state,” “Islamic transnationalism,” or “Paxa Islamica” and on notions of a government based on God’s sovereignty instead of the people’s sovereignty.rooted social and cultural conservatism within the confines of liberal democracy."

Note: On September 23, the Cairo Court for Urgent Matters issued a preliminary injunction ordering the shutdown of the Brotherhood. Yet, dissolving or legally banning the group will have only a very partial effect in practice. As long as the Brotherhood maintains its core constituency of supporters, networks, and ideological believers, it can survive intact as a social movement and organization despite its official illegal status as it did for decades under Nasser, Sadat, and Mubarak.

Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood faces a tremendously difficult but crucial choice about what role it will try to play in Egypt’s political future. The organization is reeling from the stunning reversal of power it experienced this summer, when massive popular protests against the serious governance failures of the government led by then president Mohamed Morsi, a senior Brotherhood figure, prompted the Egyptian military to overthrow Morsi and install a caretaker government. Since then, the new authorities have killed more than 1,000 Brotherhood members, brought criminal charges against Morsi, and jailed most of the rest of the Brotherhood’s senior leadership. But despite being under political siege, the Brotherhood remains a significant actor in Egypt. What role it decides to play will have a major impact on Egypt’s still highly uncertain new political path.

Since Morsi was driven from power in July, the Brotherhood has been reluctant to concede defeat. It has staged a series of protests aimed at reinstating the former government, trying to motivate grassroots supporters with messages of defiance while simultaneously sending out more conciliatory messages to the international community. The Brotherhood’s future strategy remains difficult to predict, particularly with the arrest of the organization’s top leaders, which has left the Brotherhood paralyzed and indecisive. A deep-reaching positive transformation of the organization, entailing changes in ideology, tactics, and goals, would be necessary for it to become a full player in what many Egyptians still hope for: a genuinely democratic Egyptian political system.

Yet such a transformation appears unlikely given the current situation. Instead, three alternative scenarios present themselves: accommodation and integration; a turn to sustained, large-scale violence; and continued protest and attempted regime delegitimization. Blunders by the transitional government have muddied the waters and paradoxically helped the Brotherhood even as state security services are coming down so hard on it.

Brotherhood policies, discourse, and political tactics since the 2011 uprising that toppled then president Hosni Mubarak have raised serious questions about the organization’s authoritarian leanings and the clear danger these tendencies pose to national identity, unity, security, and democracy. Comprehensive ideological and organizational changes are therefore necessary if the Brotherhood is to play a productive role in a democratic Egyptian future... read more:
http://m.ceip.org/2013/09/23/what-path-will-egypt-s-muslim-brotherhood-choose/gnx7