Bharat Bhushan: The Kashmir valley has rejected PM Narendra Modi's 'Gram Swaraj'
Prime Minister Modi has described the just completed third tier local body elections to the District Development Councils (DDCs) in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) as realisation of Mahatama Gandhi’s vision of “Gram Swaraj”. However, they are hardly likely to satisfy local Kashmiri aspirations for the restoration of basic democratic freedoms or dampen international criticism.
The DDC’s governance mandate is limited to just five
subjects– welfare, health, education, finance and public works. The Kashmiri is
far too savvy to be taken in by limited municipal ‘democracy’ while larger
freedoms, including that of electing legislators are denied. They are aware
that if political activists continue to remain in jail, security forces remain
widely deployed with no legislative checks or accountability and even the
freedom to communicate freely is curtailed, then such “elections” cannot lead
to a revival of democracy, leave alone to the restoration of limited autonomy.
Equally misplaced is the reading of the results by a
minister of the ruling party as a “resounding slap” on the face of extremists,
separatists, terrorists and their patrons or a clear signal that “the politics
of appeasement and dynasty rule is fast ending”. The voting, if anything,
reflects religious and regional polarisation. The BJP has won 86 per cent of
the 56 seats in Hindu dominant districts (where they are more than 90 per cent)
and only 2 per cent of the 152 seats in the Muslim majority districts. It has
got 34.4 per cent of the votes in Hindu-majority Jammu, but only 3.3 per cent of
the vote in the Muslim-dominated Kashmir Valley, winning only 3 seats out of
140 there.
Moreover, Delhi’s plans to marginalise the ‘dynastic’
political parties began going awry from the day the mainstream Kashmir parties
decided to contest the DDC elections and
formed the seven-party Peoples’ Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD)
demanding restoration of autonomy. Despite expressing reservations about their
role in the past, voters have endorsed them overwhelmingly now.
In fact, PAGD not only won handsomely in the Kashmir Valley
but also performed well in areas where the religious population is mixed. It
has won 57 per cent seats in the Muslim dominated districts, 31 per cent seats
in religiously mixed districts and 4 per cent in the entirely Hindu districts.
Together, the alliance got the largest number of seats in the Union Territory.
The National Conference recorded a win in 25 seats in
Jammu region including two seats in Hindu dominated constituencies. The
Peoples’ Democratic Party which has seen several desertions from its ranks also
did not do badly winning 27 seats in the Valley.
Nor did the Modi government’s hopes that local
government elections would produce a new and compliant political
elite bear fruit. The 50 independents and the 12 Apni Party Councillors have a
fair sprinkling of old politicos who have broken away from existing parties.
The mainstream parties in PAGD are centre-stage once again, having gained
ground lost in the aftermath of August 5, 2019 when the status of J&K was
changed. The voters have accepted them and the parties have been able to ginger
up their dormant party organisation after the crackdown of August 2019. Having
tasted victory in the DDC polls, the prospect of gaining legislative power will
prevent them from boycotting assembly polls whenever they are held. What is
more, they are united in their opposition to the Modi government’s Kashmir
policy.
The Modi government may then have to push the assembly polls
further down the calendar. More than ever, it will now need to skew the rules of
the game to ensure BJP victory. One way of doing that is to convict potential
opponents on criminal charges thus disqualifying them from political contests a
la Lalu Yadav in Bihar. Another important strategy will be to redraw the
constituencies (through delimitation) in a way that will change their religious
composition to the BJP’s advantage. A delay in assembly elections will also be
necessary for its newly elected DDC Councillors to accumulate sufficient
social, political and material capital to make a credible bid in the assembly
elections. Without these preparations, any hope of a new political dispensation
with a Hindu from Jammu installed as chief minister in Srinagar is likely to
remain a pipedream.
It is more than likely therefore that the leaders of the
constituent parties of the PAGD, especially those who had previous dealings
with the BJP in Delhi, will continue to be targeted by the central agencies.
The Modi government is unlikely to forgive National Conference leader Farooq Abdullah, Peoples’
Democratic Party leader Mehbooba
Mufti and Peoples’ Conference Leader Sajjad
Lone – once considered ‘reasonable’ leaders but now challenging it.
Internationally, Pakistan and the incoming Joe Biden
administration in the US will be a cause for concern. Pakistan has not given up
its claims on Kashmir as a lost cause yet. Any claims by India that the Kashmir
situation is returning to normal, will only provoke Islamabad to intensify
militancy in J&K. That is the only option before Islamabad because all dialogue
is frozen with Delhi. It can do this simply by increasing weapons’ supply to
the Valley. The arms drop – 11 Arges type HG84 grenades dropped across the
border using a drone -- at Gurdaspur on December 11 may well be a part of that
process.
A major determinant of whether Pakistan chooses to create
instability in J&K or not will be the attitude of the Joe Biden
administration towards Kashmir after it assumes power on January 20, 2021. If
the Biden administration sticks by its campaign declaration on Kashmir and
human rights, then the Modi government will find it difficult to get as free a
passage on J&K as it did during the more Islamophobe Trump administration.
However, should the US mute criticism of India on J&K
for the sake of larger regional strategic considerations, especially vis-à-vis
China, then Pakistan is bound to ramp up militancy in J&K. This time
around, it may also have the encouragement and support of its ‘blood brother’,
China, which has already engaged India militarily in Ladakh, a part of J&K state
before August 5, 2019.
Kashmiri Pandit Sangarash Samiti Fast-unto-Death
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Merajuddin Shah, The Kashmiri Killed At A Checkpoint
BHARAT BHUSHAN: Cracks
appear in Kashmiri political class as govt seeks middle ground
Quratulain Rehbar: A Year
On, Kashmiri Man’s Family Despairs His Continued Incarceration Under PSA
Yoginder Khandari on the
plight of Non-Migrant Kashmiri Pandits / Hindus living in Kashmir Valley
Dhrubo Jyoti - 30 years of Pandit exodus: Night of
terror that prefaced years of exile
We Fear For the 400 Kashmiri Pandit Families in South
Kashmir: Sanjay Tickoo
Mansoor Anwar on Comrade Abdul
Sattar Ranjoor
Superflous people - review of 'Our
Moon has blood clots'
Kashmir - 16 yrs on, Wandhama
victims ...
Kashmiri Pandit Sangharsh Samiti
Press Release ...
Kashmiri Pandits Stage Protest March
in Srinagar
Sualeh Keen on the exodus of
Kashmir's Pandits
SIDDHARTHA GIGOO - To Die
While Dreaming of return ...
Communist Party of India Report
(1950) - Imperialist aggression in Kashmir
Sanjay Tickoo's Open
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Kashmir - 16 yrs on, Wandhama
victims await justice
Rahul Pandita - There are no goodbyes
Two articles on the Pathribal fake encounter
case
Samar Halarnkar demands justice for the victims of
Pathribal
Mohammad Yousuf Tarigami, CPI(M) MLA, J&K:
‘Serious dialogue need of the hour’
Comrade Satyapal Dang: Lessons of Punjab have
Relevance for Kashmir
Can democracy be defended by alliances with
communalists?
Sanjay Tickoo: ‘Given the political backlash, no
Pandit can or will return to Valley’
India’s Citizenship Emergency: Interview with
Professor Niraja Jayal
