BHARAT BHUSHAN: Cracks appear in Kashmiri political class as govt seeks middle ground
On August 5, the first
anniversary of the abrupt revocation of Jammu and Kashmir’s special status,
media attention will be focused on the foundation-laying ceremony of the Ram
Temple at Ayodhya on
the site where the Babri Mosque once stood. The Kashmiri people may be forgiven
for assuming that the date was deliberately chosen to underline yet again that
the juggernaut of ‘Hindu cultural nationalism’ rolls on; that reasonable
voices, unable to counter the religious nationalism of the ruling dispensation,
have fallen silent; and there is no one to share their pain.
Within J&K, cracks
in the ranks of the mainstream political parties are evident. The so-called
Gupkar Declaration signed by 18 leaders of seven political parties promising to
work together is in tatters. They had resolved that the parties will “remain
together and stand united in their struggle for safeguarding the identity,
autonomy and special status of the State.” The motto of
“one-for-all and all-for-one” has been thrown to the winds as two of the
musketeers have broken rank.
The National Conference (NC) leaders, father-son duo
of Farooq Abdullah and Omar Abdullah, have made their
political intentions clear. They have supported the demand for restoration of
statehood for the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir but left the fundamental
issue of restoring the special status of the erstwhile state - through revival
of Articles 370 and 35A of the Constitution - to the judiciary. Omar
Abdullah has even indicated willingness to contest
elections once statehood is restored. For the rest, Farooq
Abdullah says the party’s working committee will decide “when the
situation comes”.
These positions
diverging from the common agreement are being taken even as another signatory,
former Chief Minister Mehbooba
Mufti of the Peoples’ Democratic Party, remains under arrest.
Regardless of what National Conference leaders say in public about
releasing Mehbooba Mufti, her arrest suits the party politically. Once released
she would spell trouble for their agenda. The Bharatiya Janata
Party government at the Centre had dangled the carrot of restoration of
statehood for the truncated Union Territory of J&K before its political
class. However, the Centre’s own attempts to build a King’s Party afresh in
J&K failed. The J&K Apani Party led by Altaf Bukhari has not taken off.
Accommodation with previously existing mainstream political parties has
therefore become necessary to restore a political process in J&K.
It is not only the
Abdullahs but the Congress party too is legitimising that framework by asking
for statehood but keeping silent on Articles 370 and 35A. The party had after
all supported their revocation in Parliament, only questioning the manner in
which they were operationalized. Not surprisingly, when
Congress leader Ghulam Nabi Azad met Prime Minister Narendra Modi on July 25 to
discuss the pandemic in J&K, he also demanded restoration of statehood and
assembly polls thereafter. If statehood were to follow along the lines
suggested by the statements of the NC and the Congress, then nullification
of Article 370 and 35A can be taken as fait accompli.
From the Centre’s point of view then only two major issues would remain on its
political agenda: implementation of the domicile law and the delimitation of
assembly constituencies.
On the domicile issue,
the central government is already on the back foot. It had to amend it to
reserve all government jobs for domiciles of the Union Territory. A similar
domicile order was not issued for the Union Territory of Ladakh perhaps sensing
the anger of the local population against any threat of diluting its religious
majority. With the Muslim population of J&K already upset, the Centre could
not afford to put the Buddhists of Ladakh on the warpath also.
The traditional base
of the BJP is among the Jammu Hindus, especially the Dogras, who feel more
threatened by the domicile policy of the government than those in the Valley.
According to some estimates about 25,000 applications for domicile certificates
have been received in Jammu and far fewer, about 5,000 in the Kashmir Valley.
In Jammu, refugees from West Pakistan, Dalits and Gurkhas are also likely to
get domicile certificates. Cumulatively, the Dogras feel that they would be
weakened in the region.
The Lieutenant
Governor of the Union Territory of J&K has promised that “land laws will be
made separately.” It remains to be seen how local land ownership will be
protected. If statehood is eventually restored, both the domicile and land
ownership issues made in the time of President’s Rule will revert back to the
State. The State Legislative Assembly will have to deal with their fallout as
they will cease to be the Centre’s headache.
The delimitation
exercise, which has already begun in J&K, is working with the outdated
population figures of the 2011 census. Many political observers of J&K
expect an allotment of a greater number of assembly constituencies to the Jammu
region and redefinition of the boundaries of some constituencies in Poonch and
Rajouri in a way that could increase the number of ‘Hindu-dominated’
constituencies. Such manoeuvres could, in principle, pave the way for a
Dogra-Hindu Chief Minister from the Jammu region for the UT or of the state,
when statehood is restored. However, while some of
the local mainstream parties may be in agreement over the restoration of
statehood, they may not play ball with changing the boundaries of the
Muslim-dominated constituencies of Jammu. They may not therefore agree to
restart politics on the Central government’s terms.
As for ordinary
Kashmiris, while the trauma of that fateful day last August may have receded
the loss of their political autonomy and the humiliation accompanying it is not
forgotten. The middle ground in Kashmiri politics has disappeared as people see
the futility of a dialogue with the rest of India, which seems to be on an
ideological high. Their economy is so completely destroyed that rephrasing US
Deputy Secretary of State, Richard Armitage’s threat to Pakistan after 9/11, a
Kashmiri intellectual exclaimed bitterly, “Without any bombing, you have thrown
us into the Stone Age.”
