New study finds rising sea level predictions much worse than anyone imagined
In practical terms it is
necessary to account for human migration, as well as the fact that the
population of the world is expected to increase by two billion people by 2050.
The error was in
estimating the impact of sea rise based primarily on 3-D satellite imagery from
NASA, which led scientists to erroneously establish “the planet’s upper surfaces—such as treetops and tall
buildings,” as ground level. This, as New York’s Intelligencer
summarizes, was
the elevation data that scientists generally relied on when estimating the
degree of incursion that rising seas would represent. Scientists Scott A. Kulp
and Benjamin H. Strauss, in affiliation with Princeton University and the
organization Climate Central, recently discovered and corrected for
this error and, with the assistance of artificial intelligence technology, were
able to correct prior estimates.
When extrapolated to
show the effect of sea rise on human populations, the data now indicate “that
many of the world’s coastlines are far lower than has been generally known.”
This means that “sea level rise could affect hundreds of millions of more
people in the coming decades” than was already feared. That’s a three- to
four-fold increase over estimates based on the erroneous NASA data.
In terms of actual
numbers, by 2050, as many as 150 million to 340 million people living below
annual high-tide or flood levels could be subject to displacement by
higher sea levels, depending on which scenario—“optimistic” (reflecting lower
rates of continued greenhouse gas emissions) or “pessimistic” (reflecting
higher rates of such emissions)—is considered. The projections for 2100 roughly
double these numbers, if that can be imagined.
Southern and
southeastern Asia will be the areas first and most severely
impacted—Bangkok, Thailand, and much of southern Vietnam, for example, will disappear
by 2050, according to these estimates—but these regions are hardly alone. The study indicates that Brazil and the
United Kingdom could permanently lose land to the rising waters by the end of
this century. Sooner than that, in 2050, Kulp and Strauss estimate, over 3.6
million people in Great Britain alone could face annual flooding.
Additionally, the study predicts that “even in the U.S.,” the sea rise
impact could lead to climate-driven migration from the coastlines.... read more:
