Bharat Bhushan - In Kashmir, the initial bravado seems to be giving way to nervousness
After the initial
rhetoric of “finally integrating” Jammu & Kashmir into India, the Modi
government appears uncertain about how the ground situation will pan out.
Whenever restrictions are relaxed, public protests erupt, concertina wires and
mobile bunkers are redeployed in the agitation prone areas. As of now protests
seem largely limited to Srinagar but no one can guarantee that they will not
spread to other parts of the Kashmir Valley. It seems that those who assumed
that the ordinary Kashmiri would get on with life as usual after their flag,
Constitution and statehood were peremptorily taken away, miscalculated.
In retrospect, the
biggest error of judgement by decision-makers in Delhi may be the removal of
the mainstream political parties of the state from the public sphere by imprisoning
their leaders. They were a buffer as well as a channel of communication between
the State and the people. The absence of large
scale anger over their arrests has been taken as indication of their total
alienation from the grassroots in J&K. But it is not exceptional for people
to hate politicians. They are constantly vilified by the media, some are known
to be corrupt and more often than not, politicians have not delivered on their
promises. This contributes to popular scepticism about them.
However, ordinary
people also at the same time do not understand the importance of politics. They
may not recognise that the alternatives to democratic politics, are much worse.
Despite being imperfect and allegedly corrupt, politicians at least offer an
alternative to governance by intimidation. By removing them from public life
and political discourse, governance can only be through coercion as one can see
signs of in J&K.
Having painted
mainstream Kashmiri political leaders as corrupt dynasts, the Modi government
is finding it difficult to approach a sullen local population and is unsure of
what to do with the state’s imprisoned leaders. It is unable to assess the
public mood. Formal administrative channels of communication are ineffective or
of little help. No Kashmiri is going to seek justice or help from those who he
believes to be responsible for the present denouement. Informal channels have
also become ineffective as no one wants to be seen as an informant. With the
State still unable to trust even the local police, which remains disarmed, who
is going to be its link to even police informers? The mainstream politicians
were a safety valve that is now gone.
It will be difficult
for the Modi government to fill the political vacuum it has created. No
alternative leadership was nurtured before mainstream political leaders were
removed. It cannot be created out of thin air. The Modi government would do
well to learn from the miserable failure of Gen. Zia ul Haq’s and Gen. Pervez
Musharraf’s regimes to create new political leaders through government
patronage in Pakistan. None of the “Basic Democrats” of Zia or the “Nazims” of
Musharraf have survived the vagaries of democracy. Eventually Pakistan’s
military dictators had to go back to the established political parties to
facilitate and sustain social and political stability.
The government is
afraid that if released, the mainstream leaders would begin mobilising people
against it. The Governor of J&K Satyapal Malik admitted as much in an
interview saying that if they were set free “their utterances will spoil the
ground situation”. If Mahbooba Mufti or Omar Abdulla, he speculated, “march
with 20 to 50 people and threaten to burn (down) the Raj Bhavan, we will be
forced to open fire, won’t we?” Justifying their imprisonment he fatuously
claimed that he himself wished to stay in the “beautiful cottage” where Mufti
was imprisoned and Omar Abdulla should not complain as he was imprisoned in a
“King’s Palace” (Hari Niwas Palace, now a designated sub-jail).
It seems that the
top-rung leadership of the Peoples’ Democratic Party and the National
Conference is unlikely to be released any time soon. However their
second-rung leaders also seem unwilling to cooperate with the government. They
are apparently being offered freedom if they sign a legal undertaking to desist
from political activity and criticism of the government. So far, there are no
takers. If, as it seems,
political leaders prefer to stay in jail instead of being dubbed
“collaborators”, how will politics in J&K revive? The Governor’s answer is:
“Political dialogue is important but we will engage with civil society.” He
claimed he would talk directly to “Lawyers, teachers and other sections” of
society.
Governor Malik is
overoptimistic if he thinks that civil society organisations are eager to hold
a political dialogue with him. Why would those who have agitated about
protecting human rights, against the excesses of the security forces and argued
for greater autonomy, even independence, now agree to talk to a Governor who
had promised them and indeed the whole nation that all stakeholders would be
consulted before changing the special status of the state? Since he had to
subsequently rationalise his untruths citing obligations under the Official
Secrets Act, a dialogue with him will have no credibility.
A political leadership
could yet evolve from the sporadic protests and agitations but that is unlikely
to be sympathetic to the Union government. The only other process that can lead
to the emergence of new leaders is electoral. However prospects of elections to
the legislature by next spring, as speculated earlier, seem distant now. Any
exercise to prop up nobodies as legislators will not succeed. They may have to
be put up in makeshift ‘prisons’ to keep them safe in Srinagar.
Meanwhile, there is
already some speculation that a law may be brought in to limit the amount of
land non-residents can acquire to assuage local fears about outsiders grabbing
land. Without this the ruling dispensation stands to lose support even in Jammu
and in Ladakh. With possibilities of
political revival in J&K remaining bleak, it seems that the political
situation could remain disturbed much longer than anticipated. After the
initial bravado, the government seems to be getting nervous about emerging
scenarios in Kashmir.
see also
An
appeal for Kashmiri students
Retired officials, veterans and academics remind Election Commission of transgressions
Samjhauta Express blast case verdict: ‘Who will answer for death of my five children?’
Samjhauta Express blast case verdict: ‘Who will answer for death of my five children?’
