‘What will define the Middle East is no more the Arab Spring, but a new nuclear geopolitics and Iran’s bigger role’
Iranian political philosopher RAMIN JAHANBEGLOO is associate professor of political science at York University, Toronto, he is the recipient of the 2009 peace prize awarded by the Association for the UN in Spain for his academic work in promoting dialogue between cultures and advocacy of non-violence. In New Delhi on a lecture tour, he spoke to Sudeep Paul:
The Geneva nuclear deal has the potential to change Iran's role in the Middle East, if Tehran and the P5+1 don't fall out. But will a fresh round of US sanctions against Iran complicate or jeopardise the deal?
The Geneva deal is a very important turn in Iranian diplomacy, towards not only the United States but also Europe. It opens the way to a new re-writing of the political map of the Middle East, North Africa and South Asia. It also re-integrates Iran as a political entity and not only a security problem into the international community as a legitimate regional power. Though only a first step, the agreement has important implications. It could ease the diplomatic relations between the US and Iran, but it could also prepare the way for coordinated humanitarian relief and a political solution in Syria. Interestingly, this first nuclear agreement between Iran and the P5+1 is actually a double-edged sword -- it can open new options with regard to Iran's regional role in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf and it's a victory for the moderate government of Hassan Rouhani against the Iranian hardliners, and also of the Obama administration's positive steps against the hawks in Washington. At the same time, it could be a very difficult journey for both Iran and the US, mainly because of the hardliners in either country.
But the important thing is that, in Iran, people are becoming not only more hopeful because of this deal, but they now have higher expectations of the Iranian government on issues such as the management of a suffering Iranian economy and a difficult and factionalised Iranian domestic politics. So if we look forward in the next six months, either there will be a weakening of the deal in Geneva and we'll go back to where we started, or there will be a breakthrough in Iranian diplomacy and it can pave the way for more lasting progress and change. As a result of this, Iran can reintegrate itself as a country in the concert of nations and play the role of mediator in solving issues like Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and many others.
A permanent deal will be a paradigm shift in the Middle East.
The paradigm shift in Middle Eastern politics will be multi-layered. One will be Iran coming back to its position of a big player in Middle East politics and the Persian Gulf region. The second will be a nuclear geopolitics in the , which has two sides: if Iran continues as a nuclear power without making the bomb -- while Israel and Pakistan are nuclear powers, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar also want to be nuclear powers -- we are looking at a new nuclear geopolitics. That means we're turning the page on a new concept of security in the . But we're also talking about who's going to provide these nuclear infrastructures for the other countries -- because they can't do it themselves. There's no danger if everything is on the table, because with the NPT and the IAEA, we can be looking at a nuclear de-proliferation in the . Certainly, this too is going to create a new balance of power. What will define the is no more the Arab Spring, but the new nuclear geopolitics and a bigger role for Iran... read more:
