Bharat Bhushan: Modi government losing ground in battle of public perception over handling of pandemic
Prime Minister
Narendra Modi’s “Letter to the Nation” calls the first anniversary of his
re-election as the beginning of “a golden chapter in the history of India”.
Home Minister Amit Shah, has also published a eulogy, rather truthfully
labelled, wags would claim, as “Undoing 6 decades in 6 years”! In the coming
days we will no doubt read many more public encomiums to the leader.
There is little cause
to celebrate a political milestone given the government’s particularly inept
handling of the coronavirus pandemic. Yet the ruling Bharatiya Janata
Party (BJP) wants to celebrate one year of Modi 2.0 as publicly as
circumstances permit. The party is launching 3,000 online rallies. State units
have been asked to ensure that more than 750 people attend each virtual rally.
There will also be a thousand video conferences celebrating Prime Minister Modi
as “the world’s most popular leader” whose historic achievements in the last
one year will be “written in golden letters in history”. His “Letter to the
Nation”, (to be delivered to at least 10 crore households), lists among these
achievements the nullifying of Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir, enacting the
law against triple talaq, paving the way for a Ram Temple at Ayodhya and
passing the Citizenship Amendment Act.
Yet each day brings
news of another record rise in infections, inadequate hospital infrastructure,
mortuaries bursting at the seams and crematoriums unable to cope with the dead.
Why in the midst of so much human suffering must the leader’s great
achievements be celebrated? Does it show nervousness at being marginalised by
the current focus of national discourse on the pandemic? Will a new narrative
of achievements in other spheres help the BJP dominate public discourse once
again?
The government is
aware it has lost ground in the battle of public perceptions over its handling
of the pandemic. It has discontinued the daily joint press briefings of the
Health and Home Ministries. Prime Minister Modi has also discontinued his
direct TV addresses to the nation after the first two lockdowns. The third
extension of lockdown was
inexplicably saw the Chief of Defence Staff announcing flypasts and flower
showers by the armed forces. The fifth extension has merely announced measures
worked out behind the scenes between the Home Minister and the states.
Perhaps Prime Minister
Modi does not want the nation to remember that he had asked for 21 days on
national television to defeat the pandemic, three more he said than the
mythical Battle of Mahabharat! On April 24, a committee headed by a Niti Ayog
Member had presented a study claiming that new virus cases would cease by May
16! Quite where does the government get such statistics from?
One source is the
Boston Consulting Group (BCG) hired to map scenarios of the pandemic, analyse
trends and recommend policy options. The BCG’s forecast provided a strong
rationalisation for the sudden and prolonged lockdown, allowing the Home
Minister to claim that “India has succeeded in stopping the spread of corona to
(a) large extent due to the lockdown at
the right time.” BCG projections claimed that the lockdown between
March 25 and May 15, prevented 36 to 70 lakh cases and saved1.2 to 2.1 lakh
lives. These projections were almost double that of four other estimates,
including that of the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation.
The government’s
latest projections shared in a meeting chaired by the Cabinet Secretary with state
government officials on August 26, according to a media report, projected
1,65,122 (with 9,346 cases per day) up to May 31. However on May 31, infections
crossed 1.8 lakh which far exceeded the number of infected cases forecast by
the government. By June 15 the number is expected to rise to 3,95,727 (22,400
cases per day) after two successive doubling times of 12 days each. At present
the doubling time is 14.6 days.
After mid-June the
forecasts assume a reduction in doubling rate to 10 days. This means that on
June 30, the projected cases in India will be 11,22,839 (75,415 cases per day),
increasing on July 15 to 31,85,952 cases (2,13,982 cases per day); on July 31
to 96,90,715 (6,50,869 cases a day) and on August 15, the case load is expected
to be a whopping 2,74,96,513 (18,46,781 cases per day). Unless Prime Minister
Modi can show the way forward on controlling the galloping pandemic he will
find it difficult to mould public perceptions. Even party supporters can see
that people have been left to their own devices now. The record of BJP
governments in the states is also dismal.
Most BJP-ruled states
stand out for their mismanagement of the pandemic. In Madhya Pradesh, virtually
the entire Health Department was down with the coronavirus infection and unable to oversee the
state’s healthcare needs. The state did not have a health minister for two half
months into the pandemic as the previous government had been brought down while
the virus was raging. In Uttar Pradesh, the government flip-flopped over
allowing migrants back into the state and locked up anyone who tried to help
them. In Karnataka, the state government after meeting with builders who
complained of labour shortages, cancelled trains scheduled to take migrant
labour home. In Gujarat, officers were discouraged from increasing testing to
suppress infection figures.
In Gujarat and
Himachal Pradesh, BJP leaders were allegedly involved in scams to make money
from the pandemic. In Gujarat’s fake ventilator scam a company owned by a
friend of Chief Minister sold unapproved “ambu-bags” (artificial manual
breathing unit) as ventilators. In HP, the BJP state unit president had to
resign on “moral grounds” as his name had surfaced in the government purchasing
PPE and other consumables at inflated prices from a company owned by another
BJP leader.
The ground situation
clearly has been at complete variance with the tall claims made about the
performance of the Modi
government in tackling the pandemic. Who knows an entirely new
over-the top narrative may yet reassure the faithful that the BJP government
had fulfilled its Hindutva agenda and revive public enthusiasm.
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