Murad Banaji: In charts: How will the Covid-19 pandemic end?

This question was recently brought into focus by the publication of a paper speculating that India’s Covid-19 epidemic would end in September. While this outcome seems highly unlikely, the question of how and when India’s Covid-19 epidemic might end is a valid one.


The good news is that elimination can occur. New Zealand appears to have achieved elimination and other countries, such as Vietnam, South Korea and Australia may soon follow suit. But in many countries, including India, Covid-19 seems to be the unwanted guest who just will not leave. The goal here is to try, with the help of modelling, to unpack the processes by which Covid-19 epidemics can be controlled – even ended. 

First, it is helpful to think about what Covid-19 epidemics do not do, and that is best summarised in pictures we see often which look something like this... read more:
https://scroll.in/article/964450/in-charts-how-will-the-covid-19-pandemic-end




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