BURMA'S ROAD TO DEMOCRACY - China v West in Burma
Whether the Western sanctions imposed on the junta in the 1990s had any significant impact on Burma's political process beyond symbolism, is debatable. At the time when Burma needed hard foreign currency, the Western sanctions were offset by business with China, Singapore, Thailand and India.
If the sanctions were not effective, it is equally pompous to claim that the so-called "constructive engagement" without naming and shaming the junta as practiced by India, had any impact on Burma's democratic political process. India has been desperately mimicking China _ a fact abhorred by the pro-democracy activists _ even when the Association of Southeast Asian Nations became increasingly vocal for the release of Mrs Suu Kyi and the need for national reconciliation.
If Mrs Suu Kyi were to be under house arrest today, India would still be, quite deplorably, doing business as usual with the junta. The junta's change of heart for democracy has more to do with Burma being reduced to another Chinese province, than the junta reeling under sanctions or a strong pro-democracy movement inside ethnically divided Burma. The junta's choreographed democracy must be analysed from a historical perspective.
One of the despicable measures taken by Gen Ne Win following the coup of 1962 was to seize the properties of Indian-origin Burmese who had been living in Burma for generations, by nationalising private property in 1964. Over 300,000 ethnic Indians were also expelled. Gen Ne Win feared domination by the Indian-origin Burmese in the administration and major business enterprises.
About 50 years later, Burma finds itself in the same situation, but now with the Chinese. In the last 20 years, millions of Chinese have moved into Burma from neighbouring Yunnan and other provinces. From Burmese timber and gems to mines, oil and gas, the Chinese control everything. Mandalay today looks more a city of China than Burma, with Chinese-owned hotels, guesthouses, restaurants and small businesses. The Chinese festivals have become an integral part of the city's cultural calendar. The huge investments made by China mainly benefit itself. The Myitsone Dam being built at the cost of US$3.6 billion in the Kachin State and suspended since Sept 30, was supposed to provide electricity to China for 50 years despite severe power shortage in Burma.
As the Burmese have been pushed to the margins, resentment against the Chinese has become all pervasive. However, the junta can not afford to expel the Chinese the way it expelled the Indians. It desperately needs to counter-balance China. Not surprisingly, while Burmese Foreign Minister Wunna Maung Lwin visited Beijing on Oct 10 to explain the cancellation of the Myitsone Dam at the cost of a hefty cancellation fee of US$42.5 million, President Thein Sein launched his three-day state visit to India from Oct 12.
