America, Israel, Iran: a shifting risk

By Dilip -

The many factors that are contributing to an increase of tension over Iran's nuclear ambitions were noted in the previous column in this series. They include anexplosion at an Iranian missile-plant, the capture of a CIA surveillance-drone, the rhetoric of Republican politicians in the United States, and a hawkish speech by the diplomatic insider and Barack Obama's former adviser on middle-east issues, Dennis Ross (see "America, Israel, Iran: war in focus", 15 December 2011).
The column noted that - Ross's informed viewsnotwithstanding - the perception of many analysts is that the Obama administration does not anticipate a military confrontation with Iran. This judgment has been reinforced by the remark of the US defence secretary Leon Panetta that a war with Iran could have dangerous consequences.
Amid these circumstances and signals, the column highlighted a longer-term strategic issue that might transcend more immediate concerns: the likelihood that Iranian influence in Iraq after the US troop withdrawals, and Washington's fear of Iranian regional power, might both increase to the point of confrontation.
The risk
The past week has seen three developments that bear on this argument. The first is the attempted arrest in Iraq on terrorism charges of the leading Iraqi Sunni politician and the country's vice-president, Tariq al-Hashemi. He has sought refuge in Kurdish Iraq, with his pursuer - Iraq's (Shi'a) prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki - requesting that the Kurds hand him over to the Baghdad authorities.
Whatever the basis of the allegations, the incident appears a case of a Shi'a-dominated government consolidating its (sectarian) power at the expense of Iraq'sSunni minority - even to the extent of abandoning the power-sharing process..

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