P. B. Mehta on the March 2022 assembly election results / Punjab: Cong, SAD, BJP register worst-ever performance
The results of the five assembly elections are a further consolidation of the momentous changes in Indian politics over the last decade. The results in UP are a spectacular win for the BJP, consolidating its power and ideological hegemony over Indian politics. It sends a plain and simple message: Politics, in the end, is a game of competitive credibility and the BJP simply has no competition.
The BJP has
transformed the nature of politics in ways to which the Opposition has no
answer. The first is a commitment to a generative conception of politics. The
sense that the BJP has a deep social base, especially amongst women and lower
castes, and a spectacular geographic reach as Manipur has demonstrated,
completely belies the identity determinism that has for so long characterised
Indian politics. The project of now opposing any national party on the basis of
a coalition of fragmented identities is dead. No political party can be averse
to social calculations. But every party at play in this election other than AAP
and BJP were, in the final analysis, relying on a kind of social arithmetic.
To reduce politics to
simply the social — as the SP, BSP, Congress had for so long done — was to
already give the game away. To continue to think that people simply voted their
caste or that the BJP represented upper caste hegemony was to take a starting
point that was at best a product of selection bias, at worst a refusal to
acknowledge voters driven by the spell of an idea. Social engineering or mere
descriptive representation makes politics sound trivial, it seems to rob voters
of their agency and they respond with revulsion.
Second, is the
weariness with old, corrupt, doddering, ancient regimes trying to reinvent
themselves. That there is social discontent is palpable. Akhilesh Yadav ran an
energetic campaign. But at the end of the day, it was hard for him to overcome
the taint of his own past. Many people saw the prospect of the SP’s return as,
in the end, a return to an old corrupt mafia ridden order. Most of these
parties, especially the Congress, come across as the Bourbon monarchy trying to
reinvent itself after the French Revolution has taken place. Even a whiff of
the old regime or baggage from the past, whether it comes as Priyanka Gandhi (who
did a large number of rallies in UP) or even a reformed Akhilesh will be enough
to kill its chances. In Punjab, the Congress tried a new social engineering by
selecting Charanjit
Singh Channi, but so overwhelming is the shadow of the party’s culture that
no amount of that worked. The sense that the Modi-Yogi combine is still in the
process of upending the old order whether in culture or in style of governance
is still palpable.
It is not an accident
that since 2014, it was the BJP and AAP that were seen as possible alternatives
— both taking India into a place that was not the tired entitlement of an old
regime that had already imploded. Both spoke a new ideological; both were not
tainted with that “old regime” tag; both presented a politics that went beyond
the social arithmetic. The AAP’s victory in Punjab has given it new wings as a
leader in the Opposition space. These are the plain truths of politics. The
question for India now is no longer the reconstruction of the Congress or the
future of Rahul
Gandhi. It is finding a new Opposition almost from scratch.
The third is just the
ability to think politically. The BJP’s handling of the farmers movement was
going to make retrieving Punjab difficult. By defusing a potential time bomb,
even if that meant doing a U-turn on a much trumpeted policy reform, the BJP perhaps
came across as responsive. Eating humble pies from a position of strength can
be, if used well, endearing, especially when the alternative is trumpeting
entitlement from a position of non-achievement and weakness.
The fourth is the
importance of leadership. Whether we like it or not, this vote reiterates
trust, in most states, in the leadership of Narendra Modi. Again,
it is an academic debate whether the vote is for Modi or Yogi. The point of a
successful leader is that they create the conditions where there is no division
in the party, and in the final analysis, an ability to work together. It has
been an obvious fact about the BJP that its constituent parts are marching to
the same tune. But this is not just a command and control performance; mere
command from the top can at best produce a sullen compliance. It is creating an
organisational culture that always has its eyes on the bigger prize. The
Opposition, in contrast, can scream all it wants that there is an existential
crisis of democracy. But if its conduct, its internal battles convey no minimal
ability to work together in a crisis, there is no ground to stand on. If in the
face of this evil, you could not get your act together, why should I even trust
your diagnosis, seems to be the refrain.
Finally, there is the
question of ideology. There will be another time to discuss how much of Yogi’s
triumph in UP has to do with governance and delivery. This is empirically a
complicated matter. This is in no small part because what a regime gets credit for
is as much a matter of prior trust as it is of facts. Certainly Yogi’s new
welfarism, or crackdown on certain kinds of corrupt intermediaries may
contribute to the BJP’s popularity. But the idea that all of that was enough to
wipe out the effects of the Covid-19 devastation,
unprecedented inflation, a dip in consumer spending and a real jobs crisis
requires more explanation. Perhaps the angriest and the most devastated no
longer feel politics is the conduit for solving their problems. Your protest
will be expressed more as social pathology, not as political revolt.
But here is one simple
thing Indian democracy will have to think about after these elections. The fact
that a politics that has venom, hate, prejudice, violence, repression and
deceit is not a deal breaker for voters is something to think about. This road
always ends in catastrophe. The somewhat less disquieting answer is that this a
reflection of the depth of incompetence to which the Opposition has sunk. The
more disquieting answer is that the loss of our moral compass on fundamental
values is irretrievable. Only time will tell. But for now the sovereign people
have spoken, and all other tongues will have to fall silent. In any case there
is no power to oppose the BJP; one can only hope glimmers of a moral conscience
can survive this undoubted feat of political mastery.
Source: Indian Express
Punjab: Cong, SAD, BJP register worst-ever performance
The Aam Aadmi Party storm made the Congress, Shiromani Akali Dal and Bharatiya Janata Party hit one of the lowest ebbs in their electoral history of Punjab since it was carved out as a separate state in 1966. In the worst-ever electoral performance in the 13 Punjab Vidhan Sabha elections held after the reorganisation in 1966, 100-year-old Shiromani Akali Dal could not get to double digit mark, hitting another low this time winning only three seats compared with 15 it had won in the 117-member Vidhan Sabha in 2017 elections. The only SAD candidates who won were Bikram Singh Majithia’s wife Ganieve Kaur (from Majitha), Manpreet Singh Ayali from Dakha and Dr Sukhwinder Singh Sukhi from Banga. SAD won a seat each in Majha, Malwa and Doaba regions...
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