Nathan Robinson: Stop saying Biden is the 'most electable'. Trump will run rings round him // Garry Kasparov: The danger of nominating Sanders
One reason Democrats
are bad at politics is that they concern themselves too much with facts and not
enough with impressions. With Clinton’s “emails scandal”, they tried to show
Clinton had
not technically violated the law, but having Barack Obama’s FBI actively
investigating Clinton for possible criminal wrongdoing looked
terrible regardless of the facts... Left-leaning pundits love to “fact-check” Trump, as if proving that he has
lied is in itself persuasive. But 2016 should have showed us how powerless
“debunking” is next to “optics”. If you have a Democratic candidate who looks really
corrupt, it doesn’t matter if they’re not. People don’t trust the press and
they don’t trust politicians. Imagine Biden running
against Trump. Trump will run ads like this, over and
over.
Supporters of Joe
Biden are unlikely to be persuaded by most of the common criticisms. They know
he can be rambling and unintelligible. They know his record is unimpressive and
that he doesn’t really have “policy proposals”. None of this matters, though,
because to them he has the most important quality of all: he can beat Donald Trump.
Nothing you can say about the former vice-president’s record, platform or
mental state matters next to the argument that he is the best hope Democrats
have of getting Trump out of office.
There’s just one
problem: it’s a myth. It is a myth just as it was a myth that Hillary Clinton
was a good candidate against Trump. Biden is not, in fact, the pragmatic
choice. He would not beat Trump. He would lose. And we must say this over and
over again. Forget his flubs. Forget his finger-nibbling.
Biden would be crushed by Trump. If you want Trump out of office, don’t support
Biden.
Last time round,
Clinton supporters lived in a strange kind of denial. Anyone could see she had
unique vulnerabilities Trump could exploit. She was a Wall Street candidate,
and he was running to “drain the swamp”. She was under investigation by the
FBI, and his pitch was that Washington was corrupt. She had supported the
catastrophic Iraq war, and he portrayed himself as an outsider opponent of
those wars. Trump could “run to her left” and make criticisms she would be
unable to respond to, because they were accurate. Clinton’s attempts to attack
Trump as an out-of-touch, reckless billionaire sex criminal would fail, because
Trump would point out that she herself was out of touch, bought by billionaires
and had an unrepentant alleged sex criminal as her husband and chief
campaign surrogate.
Joe Biden will face
many of the same problems. He has been in Washington since the age of 30,
representing Delaware, the “capital of corporate America”. He is infamous for
his connections to the credit card industry, and he has lied
about his degree of support for the Iraq war. Even Matthew Yglesias of
Vox calls Biden the “Hillary
Clinton of 2020” for his corporate ties and war support. It is worth
remembering what being the “Hillary Clinton” of anything means in an election
against Trump.
Consider the Ukraine
scandal, which is far worse for Biden electorally than acknowledged.
Democrats have made this the centerpiece of their impeachment case against
Trump, setting
aside Trump’s most consequential crimes in order to focus on the
charge that Trump tried to force the Ukrainian government to investigate Joe
and Hunter Biden. For Democrats, the scandal is clear-cut: Trump was abusing
the power of his office to “damage a political rival”. And they believe that
the American people will agree, and will be disturbed by Trump’s unethical
behavior. They insist there was “no evidence” that Joe Biden did anything
wrong, and that Trump and his associates have been unfairly trying to smear
Biden.
Democrats who
think this way are walking into a buzzsaw. Let us recall: Hunter Biden was paid
up to $50,000 a month by a Ukrainian oil company. Officially, the chief
Ukrainian prosecutor had an open investigation into that company. Joe Biden
bragged about pressuring Ukraine to fire that prosecutor, which they did.
Hunter Biden says he told his father about his position in Ukraine, and Joe
Biden did not ask him to step down. Joe Biden contradicts his son’s story,
saying they never discussed Hunter Biden’s “work” in Ukraine. One of them is
not telling the truth....
see also