Justice Malala - South Africa has broken the post-colonial narrative. It’s a thrilling turning point
South Africa’s
controversial president, Jacob Zuma, is well known for his antipathy towards urban black
intellectuals, whom he labels “the clever blacks”. In 2014, when he was
asked about public concerns that he had used state funds to build himself a
£13m palace in his home village in rural KwaZulu Natal, he replied that only
“very clever and bright people” cared about the issue. In a speech in November
2012, Zuma slammed urban blacks “who become too clever”, saying: “They become
the most eloquent in criticising themselves about their own traditions and
everything.”
Last week, the “clever
blacks” had their revenge on Zuma, delivering the heaviest electoral loss to Nelson Mandela’s African National Congress
since democracy dawned in 1994 while setting up a mighty contest for national
elections in 2019. Although the ANC
retained massive support in rural South Africa, its
losses in urban areas were shocking and comprehensive. In Nelson Mandela Bay,
the coastal city renamed in honour of South Africa’s most famous son, voters
rejected the ANC and gave their votes to the opposition Democratic Alliance.
Just 10 years ago, the ANC got 66% of the vote in the city famous for its
struggle against apartheid. It polled a disappointing 40% last week. Yesterday, Pretoria
(in the process of being renamed Tshwane), the executive capital of the
country, was set to be run by an opposition coalition after the ANC came in at
a paltry 41% of the vote behind the DA. The parliamentary capital, Cape Town,
has been in opposition hands for more than a decade.
The African continent’s
economic powerhouse, Johannesburg, saw the ANC lose its majority as opposition
parties started coalition talks there too. The national story
tells a similarly depressing story for the ANC. In local elections in 2006, the
party got 66.3% votes nationwide. The DA took 14.8%. Last week, the ANC reached just
under 54% and the main opposition DA stood at 27%.
Wednesday’s election
was a major turning point for the ANC and for South Africa. Last October, ANC
general secretary, Gwede Mantashe, warned a party policy conference that were
its support to plunge below 60% this year it would mark a “psychological and
political turning point”.
That moment has now
arrived as the party that led the international liberation struggle against
apartheid failed to convince its core urban constituency to vote for it in
significant numbers. In urban townships such as Soweto, an ANC stronghold,
voter turnout was as low as 46%, while those who did turn up increasingly voted
for the opposition DA and the radical three-year-old Economic Freedom Fighters
formed by expelled former ANC Youth League firebrand Julius Malema.
This is a watershed
moment because it means South Africa is no longer a country dominated by one
party of liberation. For long, we were slowly inching towards being a proper,
lively, multi-party system that holds power to account. We are now hurtling
that way. It’s exhilarating.
Former ANC
treasurer-general Mathews Phosa, a businessman and former Zuma ally, summed up
the ANC’s losses thus: “We need to accept the reality that there are many young
people who voted for the DA. Where do these people come from? They left the ANC
and why did they leave the ANC? The clever blacks have spoken… The masses are
punishing us with the weapon we won for them. The vote.”
It’s been a long time
coming. Since Zuma came to power in 2007, the ANC has been racked by corruption
scandals, infighting and splits. Economic mismanagement has plagued the Zuma
administration, with unemployment rising from 21% to just over 26% since 2008.
The economy has taken a beating, with projections by the Reserve Bank saying
that there will be zero growth this year, while ratings agencies have
threatened a credit rating downgrade.
To mask these
failings, the ANC ran a negative and racist campaign that aimed to paint the
opposition DA as the party of apartheid. Campaigning in Nelson Mandela Bay,
Zuma called the DA “snakes, the children of the National party” and repeatedly
referred to its young black leader as a puppet of whites. Urban South Africans
did not buy this scaremongering. As the memories of the Mandela years and the
liberation struggle have faded, and the ANC’s internal troubles have spilled
out into the open, so too has unquestioning faith in the country’s liberation
party and its veterans such as Zuma.
The legitimacy conferred upon them by the
struggle is no longer a mask for their failings in a country that is now scarred
by stories of rampant political corruption, crime and poverty. The country now enters
a new era of competitive politics in a terrain where once the ANC’s struggle
credentials ensured it unparalleled success. Malema, the energetic young
founder of the EFF, has won 8% of the national vote and is a kingmaker in
Johannesburg and Tshwane. Malema says he predicts the ANC will not be governing
South Africa when the country takes to the polls in the 2019 national
government elections.
It is a claim that
would have once been dismissed as a pipe dream. No longer. Even in its rural
strongholds such as Limpopo, where Malema comes from, the ANC has slunk in way
below its previous support levels. In Zuma’s rural home municipality, the ANC
claimed 44.25% while the Inkatha Freedom party won with 54%.
What does it mean? The
post-colonial African story is replete with tales of liberation movements that
have stayed in power with one leader and one party despite losing the support
of the people. Zimbabwe, just to the north of us, is a painful example of such
a country; Mugabe and Zanu-PF have been in power for 36 years.
South Africa has
broken with that narrative. First, Zuma is the fourth president of the country
since 1994. Mandela broke with the “strong man” tradition by stepping down
after one term. Now, with these results, a future where South Africa could be
run by an opposition party is beginning to emerge. We could see this in the
next national election in 2019 or in 2024.
It may be disconcerting
for those of us who grew up with the ANC as the very heart of the South African
political landscape, but it is not necessarily a bad thing. It heralds the
maturation of our politics and the steady, welcome move towards a lively,
competitive, responsive multi-party democracy. South Africans are using the
ballot box to speak to their leaders and that can only be a good thing.
