Greeks Face a Momentous Decision
If Syriza wins coming elections and does not fulfill its promises, face up to leaving the Euro, it will open a path for far right. (Lapavitsas is professor in economics at the University of London School of Oriental and African Studies. He teaches the political economy of finance, and he's a regular columnist for The Guardian.)
JAY: So what's, first of all, the mood there now, just days before? And Greeks have a very big decision to make.
LAPAVITSAS: I would say that the mood is strange. There's a sort of calm before the storm, I would say. There's tension. There is apprehension. But also there is excitement and expectation of significant change ahead. People don't know what the result might be, but there's hope that there will be some momentous change that will transform the situation.JAY: Now, Greece is kind of divided into two camps now. Maybe explain it. And what's sort of the logic of each camp?LAPAVITSAS: Greece is definitely divided into two camps now. What's happened after the election on 6 May, the previous election, was that the left-wing party SYRIZA emerged very powerfully and it began to gather around it all forces that wish to oppose the [incompr.] and structural adjustment program [incompr.] the country two years ago. SYRIZA has gradually become a major party, a camp in itself. It's the anti-stabilization, anti structural adjustment camp. As that has happened, and because it's taken a left-wing outlook, another camp has also formed around the right-wing party [incompr.] And this is the camp that basically wishes to maintain the current policies. It wishes to tweak the current policies a little bit, but it essentially wishes to maintain them, to maintain them. This is the right-wing camp, as I said. So the country's splitting between left and right along those two lines, and it is these two camps that will contest the election.JAY: Now, it's one thing to be against the bailout plan, and another to have a vision for what the transition or a new economy would look like in Greece. Has the left put forward that kind of a vision?LAPAVITSAS: Indeed. It's a very different thing. What is characteristic of the position of the left camp, the SYRIZA camp, is that it promises to do away with the bailout [incompr.] It promised to do [incompr.] things as far as the debt is concerned. But it also says that it will keep the country within the eurozone. It is adamant about this. It keeps repeating it at all times. So it will transform the country, presumably, but do so within eurozone. The program that it puts forth now proposes radical redistribution of income, it proposes control over the banks, proposes a new [incompr.] strategy, but all within the eurozone.In my view, this is not feasible, but this is what this camp is proposing. And that is one of the reasons of its popularity, because we should be [incompr.] aware of the fear that people now have of leaving the eurozone. And the fact that SYRIZA says they will do all these radical things without leaving the eurozone is acceptable to people.JAY: Well, it's kind of not just up to them, though. The rest of the eurozone and the banking elite of Europe has to agree to all this. And if they don't accept the bailout and don't sort of knuckle under to the conditions of the bailout, then it may not be up to them whether they stay in the eurozone or not. Is that not true?LAPAVITSAS: Absolutely true. Whether they stay in the eurozone or not is not up to what the leadership of SYRIZA says or what it fervently believes. It is up to the other players, the leadership of the eurozone. But it is also up to, in a sense, the objective economic circumstances. It is quite likely, for instance, that there would be a bank run soon after the election if SYRIZA begins to take radical measures, the radical measures that it promises, and a bank run, as we all know, can become unstoppable. So Greece might find itself outside the eurozone irrespective of what SYRIZA wishes to do and irrespective even of what the eurozone leadership wishes to do...
http://therealnews.com/t2/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=31&Itemid=74&jumival=8463
JAY: So what's, first of all, the mood there now, just days before? And Greeks have a very big decision to make.
LAPAVITSAS: I would say that the mood is strange. There's a sort of calm before the storm, I would say. There's tension. There is apprehension. But also there is excitement and expectation of significant change ahead. People don't know what the result might be, but there's hope that there will be some momentous change that will transform the situation.JAY: Now, Greece is kind of divided into two camps now. Maybe explain it. And what's sort of the logic of each camp?LAPAVITSAS: Greece is definitely divided into two camps now. What's happened after the election on 6 May, the previous election, was that the left-wing party SYRIZA emerged very powerfully and it began to gather around it all forces that wish to oppose the [incompr.] and structural adjustment program [incompr.] the country two years ago. SYRIZA has gradually become a major party, a camp in itself. It's the anti-stabilization, anti structural adjustment camp. As that has happened, and because it's taken a left-wing outlook, another camp has also formed around the right-wing party [incompr.] And this is the camp that basically wishes to maintain the current policies. It wishes to tweak the current policies a little bit, but it essentially wishes to maintain them, to maintain them. This is the right-wing camp, as I said. So the country's splitting between left and right along those two lines, and it is these two camps that will contest the election.JAY: Now, it's one thing to be against the bailout plan, and another to have a vision for what the transition or a new economy would look like in Greece. Has the left put forward that kind of a vision?LAPAVITSAS: Indeed. It's a very different thing. What is characteristic of the position of the left camp, the SYRIZA camp, is that it promises to do away with the bailout [incompr.] It promised to do [incompr.] things as far as the debt is concerned. But it also says that it will keep the country within the eurozone. It is adamant about this. It keeps repeating it at all times. So it will transform the country, presumably, but do so within eurozone. The program that it puts forth now proposes radical redistribution of income, it proposes control over the banks, proposes a new [incompr.] strategy, but all within the eurozone.In my view, this is not feasible, but this is what this camp is proposing. And that is one of the reasons of its popularity, because we should be [incompr.] aware of the fear that people now have of leaving the eurozone. And the fact that SYRIZA says they will do all these radical things without leaving the eurozone is acceptable to people.JAY: Well, it's kind of not just up to them, though. The rest of the eurozone and the banking elite of Europe has to agree to all this. And if they don't accept the bailout and don't sort of knuckle under to the conditions of the bailout, then it may not be up to them whether they stay in the eurozone or not. Is that not true?LAPAVITSAS: Absolutely true. Whether they stay in the eurozone or not is not up to what the leadership of SYRIZA says or what it fervently believes. It is up to the other players, the leadership of the eurozone. But it is also up to, in a sense, the objective economic circumstances. It is quite likely, for instance, that there would be a bank run soon after the election if SYRIZA begins to take radical measures, the radical measures that it promises, and a bank run, as we all know, can become unstoppable. So Greece might find itself outside the eurozone irrespective of what SYRIZA wishes to do and irrespective even of what the eurozone leadership wishes to do...
http://therealnews.com/t2/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=31&Itemid=74&jumival=8463
