Greek election result: an assessment
The New Democracy party will lead the government even though it is utterly clear that at least one in three of the voters who backed it think very little of the party but felt they had no other option.
Greek voters gave their contradictory verdict: While 55% voted for parties that stood explicitly against the ‘bailout’ terms and conditions, a pro-’bailout’ government is about to be formed – such is the nature of Greece’s electoral system (which rewards the largest party with a bonus of 50 additional MPs in the 300 seat chamber). The New Democracy party will lead the government even though it is utterly clear that at least one in three of the voters who backed it think very little of the party and its leader but felt they had no option but to vote for them simple because the alternative, a Syriza government, might bring upon the nation the combined wrath of Berlin, Frankfurt and Brussels. This is as inauspicious a beginning for a new government with a mountain range of challenges as one could have imagined.
So, what next? Setting aside the shenanigans of the next few days (that will be necessary before the degenerate socialist party, PASOK, finds the ‘narrative’ which will allow it to explain to itself its support to the New Democracy-led government), the main ‘feature’ to look forward to is the upcoming EU Council meeting, on 28th and 29th June where a Greek Bailout Mk3 will no doubt be shaped. For despite Germany’s protestations (that Greece must stick to the terms and conditions of Bailout Mk2), reality has overtaken and effectively annulled Bailout Mk2. To put it simply, all the underlying hypotheses (primarily regarding Greece’s recession and the related tax revenue projections) have been violated by the facts on the ground. Bailout Mk3 is an inevitability, since a Grexit would be tantamount to the instant dismantling of the Eurozone.
What is beyond doubt is that Europe will reward New Democracy with a relaxation of the terms of conditions of Bailout Mk2. This relaxation will be heralded both in Greece and internationally as a triumph. Alas, the half life of those celebrations will be even more short-lived than that which followed Bailout Mk2 and infinitesimal compared to the duration of the merriment that followed Bailout Mk1...
