Covid County Simulator (valid for the USA, but with lessons for the world at large)


Select the state and county using the drop-down boxes at the top of the page and the page will update with:

  • Daily active cases
  • 3-week forecast of active cases
  • 100-day projection of active cases and deaths Note that you have to look below the graph to see the total projected deaths.

Check daily as the regression forecast and simulation may change when we upload data each day from Johns Hopkins' GitHub site.

Mortality rate : You can override the calculated rate by typing a new one into the field. The model will use the new rate to calculate the number of deaths at the end of the simulation until you refresh the page.

Running a social distancing ‘intervention’

  • The intervention date is set to after the prediction period ends.
  • Then use the slider to increase or decrease social distancing.
  • You will notice that this changes the target Rt value, which is the value you are targeting based on more or less social distancing. There are upper and lower bounds set according to the county so that the Rt remains in a realistic range for that county’s situation.

If you’ve run an intervention case and want to return to the original base simulation, either reload the page or click on the label on the slider that says ‘Start’.

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