Ajai Sahni - If India is serious about making Pakistan pay, it can't go back to business as usual
... the obvious fact that has long eluded our national political and strategic leadership is that we have to do much of this ourselves. Crucially, moreover, this is not going to be done by a posture of extreme machismo, chests that dubiously measure 56 inches, nationalist belligerence, communal polarisation, or military jingoism. Nor is it going to be achieved by inviting ourselves to the birthday parties of various dignitaries in Pakistan.
... the present limited terrorist escalation in
Jammu and Kashmir.. is piggybacking on the street mobilisation of the past two
months. The latter… has much to do with the continuous campaigns of communal
polarisation that have been the mainstay of electoral politics in the Valley
and Jammu region, and for which, at least over the past two and a half years,
responsibility must squarely vest in both Valley-based parties, who constantly
adopt a "soft" Islamist-separatist line, and the
"nationalist" Bharatiya Janata Party and its affiliates, who have
aggressively, and at least occasionally violently, pushed the
"Hindutva" agenda…
... For decades, the world
did not heed India’s evidence of Pakistani malfeasance. A skeptical West (that
really is the "world", in terms of the equations of power) was quite
unable to distinguish between terrorists and freedom fighters. Now, since
Caucasians, among others, are dying in terrorist attacks across Europe and
America, the West has no problem with such distinctions, and is immediately
able to recognise terrorists on sight, and is aware that there is a Pakistani
footprint to almost every attack on their sacred lands (including the latest
serial bombings in New York and New Jersey).
The West is presently
busy, partly trying to defend itself against an alleged Islamist deluge (which
has cost a few hundred lives, as against the tens of thousands lost in India
alone, and hundreds of thousands in West Asia, as a direct consequence of Western
adventurism and mischief), and partly in preparing for the revival of the
Fourth Reich project, as the extremist Right gathers strength. Even if they
were not quite so preoccupied, it is unlikely that they would come and kindly
fight our wars for us.
Consistent policy
And so, the obvious
fact that has long eluded our national political and strategic leadership is
that we have to do much of this ourselves. Crucially, moreover, this is not
going to be done by a posture of extreme machismo, chests that dubiously
measure 56 inches, nationalist belligerence, communal polarisation, or military
jingoism. Nor is it going to be achieved by inviting ourselves to the birthday
parties of various dignitaries in Pakistan.
The first step is to
acknowledge the complexity and difficulty of this undertaking, not as a source
of pessimism or to demoralise ourselves, but to understand how much of a
commitment it is going to take to resolve the problem.
It is necessary to
recognise that Pakistan has successfully employed the strategy of Islamist
terrorist jihad against the Soviet Union, and has not been deterred by the
United States in its Afghan campaigns, even when top US commanders squarely
blamed Pakistan for the death of US, International Security Assistance Force
and Afghan National Security Forces personnel, as well as thousands of
civilians. The United States alone has lost 2,325 military personnel in
Afghanistan, but has failed to evolve an effective punitive or deterrent
strategy against Pakistan.
It is abundantly clear
that India has no consistent policy whatsoever with regard to Pakistan’s
sponsorship of terrorism, so there is no reason for the Pakistani military and
intelligence leadership to believe it cannot get away with what it is doing
against India, when it has survived – and survives – comparable transgressions
against infinitely more powerful states.
That said, it is also
crucial to recognise that Pakistan is on the wrong side of history, that its
trajectory is of cumulative and inevitable ruination. The world has now turned
against Pakistan, with the sole exception of China. There is, moreover,
significant consensus among most of the Western powers today that if India
could take effective action against Pakistan for its terrorism, it would not
attract extraordinary criticism, since the Western powers are also victims of
terrorism arising from Pakistan. The international environment is more hostile
to Pakistan today than it has ever been before.
Further, Pakistan’s
internal disorders, an economy in disarray, rising demographic and resource
dissonance, and sustained political mismanagement are careening towards an
existential crisis. The question, however, is how long will this process take
and how much harm will Pakistan do before this outcome is realised?
This is where the
potential of strategy and policy of other powers – including India – comes into
play. Unfortunately, this potential remains largely unexplored, as the world
appears to have paralysed itself with nightmare scenarios of Pakistan’s abrupt
collapse into chaos…
Further, it must be recognised that the
opportunities Pakistan exploits are substantially – though certainly not
exclusively – at least in part created by our own domestic political
mismanagement. The obvious case in point is the present limited terrorist
escalation in Jammu and Kashmir, which is piggybacking on the street
mobilisation of the past two months. The latter, in turn, surely has much to do
with the continuous campaigns of communal polarisation that have been the
mainstay of electoral politics in the Valley and Jammu region, and for which,
at least over the past two and a half years, responsibility must squarely vest
in both Valley-based parties, who constantly adopt a "soft"
Islamist-separatist line, and the "nationalist" Bharatiya Janata
Party and its affiliates, who have aggressively, and at least occasionally
violently, pushed the "Hindutva" agenda… read more:
