P Chidambaram - One-man band cannot make music
There is a new Cold
War in the world. It is not between the United States and Russia; that is a
diplomatic war between a presumptuous ‘sole super power’ and a chastened but
proud country that has lost its pole position. It is not between the United
States and China; that is a trade war that will be resolved in due course
according to the rules of world trade.
The new cold war is
between India and China. The war stems from two clashing points of view: India
looks upon China with envy, China looks upon India with disdain. India believes
China is a hegemonist, China regards India as an upstart. None of the Modi
Rules of Engagement — hugplomacy, Gujarati hospitality, etc — is working.
To understand the
friction, one must acknowledge some hard facts.
I say it with much regret, but there can be no argument which is the stronger and more prosperous nation. It will take many years before either or both can claim to be a middle-income country that has abolished poverty. Between the two, however, China is ahead of India in that race.
China’s Grand
Strategy
China, by all
accounts, has a grand strategy. A key aspect of China’s strategy is dominance
of its neighbourhood that includes large parts of Asia and some parts of
Europe. China sees itself as the clear and unchallenged leader of a large and
growing system of countries — in the same way as the erstwhile Soviet Union did
and in the same way many European and Asian countries saw the United States
before Mr Donald Trump. India, and perhaps
Japan, Australia and some south-east Asian countries, see it as hegemony; China
flatly denies the insinuation. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is the
signature initiative of President Xi. India and a reluctant Bhutan are among
the few countries that are holding out against joining the BRI.
China has entered into
comprehensive economic partnerships with Bangladesh, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal,
Pakistan and Sri Lanka — countries that surround India. China’s trade with and
investment in these countries have increased. Bangladesh’s top trading partner
is China. Goods originating from China top Sri Lanka’s imports. China is making
huge infrastructure investments in Pakistan, the most notable being Gwadar
port. Sri Lanka has ceded 70 per cent ownership of Hambantota port that could,
over time, turn into a naval base like Djibouti. In October 2016, China signed
a USD 24 billion funding agreement with Myanmar and is building a deep-sea port
in Kyaukpyu. The K P Oli government in Nepal, with a strong Marxist influence,
is expected to lean in favour of China. Claiming equal rights with India
vis-a-vis Maldives, China has effectively stalled any action by India in those
troubled islands.
How India failed
Observers have pointed
to several strategic mistakes committed by India. The most serious mistake was
the flip-flop policy toward Pakistan that is still passed off as ‘foreign
policy’ and that has pushed Pakistan fully into the embrace of China. If there
is another war, it will not be a war with one neighbouring country, it will be
a war on two fronts. India’s stand-off with Nepal on the new constitution of
Nepal was handled in such an abrasive manner that it hurt nationalist
sentiments in Nepal and created fissures (especially with Mr K P Oli’s party)
that will take a long time to heal.
In Maldives, India has
made a quiet retreat, leaving all opposition parties in that country
bewildered. In Sri Lanka, the ruling coalition of Maithripala Sirisena-Ranil
Wickremasinghe feels slighted by the benign neglect; a rebounding Mahinda
Rajapaksa is openly hostile.
That leaves only
Bangladesh, a country divided between two political parties so hostile to each
other that India will never be regarded as neutral in the bitter political
fight between them. Is there any surprise
that the Indian neighbourhood is an inviting field to China, that has enormous
resources, no domestic opposition to its government, an omnipotent leader and a
bagful of guile? (Recall also that President Xi is the only leader who has made
it clear that he does not favour a hug from Prime Minister Modi.) It is obvious
to most observers that China will not — as long as it can have its way — allow
India to become a member of the UN Security Council or the Nuclear Suppliers
Group. China regards itself as the sole superpower in Asia and hopes to become
a co-equal power with the United States (with help from a bumbling Mr Trump!).
There is a long-term
strategy that India can pursue: to become an economic power equal to China.
That requires collective economic wisdom, bold, structural reforms, radical
policy changes and determined implementation that will lead to sustained and
high (8-10 per cent) economic growth over a period of 20 years. That is a
challenge beyond the one-man band called Mr Narendra Modi
