Violating Election Commission Ban, Dainik Jagran Runs ‘Exit Poll’ Showing BJP Ahead
New Delhi: In what may be the first
major violation of the election code of conduct by the media in recent
years, the Dainik Jagran group – publishers of the largest
circulating Hindi daily in the country – released the results of an
exit poll report soon after polling for 73 seats in the first phase of Uttar
Pradesh assembly elections was held on February 11. The published report
claims that the Bharatiya Janata Party will emerge as the top party in the
first phase, followed by the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Samajwadi
Party-Congress combine.
The Dainik
Jagran report said that the findings came from an organisation
called RDI but mentioned no further details of either the organisation or the
party which commissioned the survey. A google search turned
up two RDIs – Research and Development International, and Research and
Development Initiative. While the former is a human resource development firm
that has no record of conducting opinion polls, the EC is also looking into the
latter, which is run by a psephologist, Devendra Kumar, and
is one of a handful of polling agencies that are considered close to the BJP.
India Today in 2013 described RDI as an agency that worked
closely with Arun Jaitley and Vasundhara Raje. RDI’s Kumar is columnist at
a number at DailyO, a portal run by the India Today group, and makes no bones
about his leanings towards the BJP.
When contacted by The
Wire, however, Kumar denied any connection to the Jagran poll. “My company
has not done any such thing,” he said. The Dainik
Jagran report also called the survey a “feedback of voters” but
followed all the norms and methodologies of an exit poll – which is banned by
the Election Commission of India until the last phase of voting in the current
set of assembly elections ends. Acting under Section
126 A of the Representation of the People Act, 1951, the EC has “prohibited the
conduct of any exit polls and publishing of their results for the elections
that will be held between February 4 and March 8.” The ban was challenged by a
Goa-based media group earlier this month but upheld by the
Bombay high court.
The Jagran report
claimed that a randomly-selected sample of 5700 voters spread across 38
assembly constituencies in western UP, which went to the polls on February 11,
were interviewed. It also said that in each seat, 10 polling booths were chosen
using a systematic random sampling method and that the results were calculated
by a probability method proportionate to population.
Opposition parties are
likely to see the Jagran report as not just deliberate
defiance of the EC’s ban but also an attempt to try and influence UP
voters in favour of the BJP even as six phases of the election still
remain. Indeed, as soon
after the report came out, BJP president Amit Shah said at a press conference
said that his party would win 50 seats in the first phase. While it is not
unconventional for a party leader to make such claims, the fact that the Jagran group
went ahead and violated the ban is likely to raise misgivings
about the media group’s independence.
“I am sure the ECI
would enquire into this and see whether there is a violation of the code of
conduct or not. Unfortunately, the ECI does not have any penal powers but if
the incident is found to be true, it can see what it can do in future and give
directions for an FIR to be filed against the violating party,” former chief
election commissioner T.S. Krishnamurthy told The Wire. Similarly, former CEC
N. Gopalaswami said, “Any form of exit poll is not allowed. The violating party
will be prosecuted for trying to influence the voter. It is a very serious
charge. The ECI can go as far as filing as filing a criminal case and get the violating
party arrested.
In response to The
Wire‘s report, the EC’s information officer said: “Very
important…ECI has taken cognisance of the report regarding the conduct of Exit
Poll by Resource Development International and Publication/dissemination of
results by Dainik Jagran in clear violation of the Sec 126 A
&B of RP Act and wilful disobedience of lawful directions of ECI under IPC
Sec 188. Reports have been sought from the CEO UP urgently.”
Dainik Jagran‘s editor Sanjay Gupta could not be reached at
the moment at the time of publication of this story. The ECI first issued guidelines banning
the publication of exit polls in 1998. When this was challenged in the Supreme
Court in 1999, the commission withdrew its guidelines but reinstated them
following representations from all political parties and a subsequent direction
from the Supreme Court in 2009 that “the Election Commission would be at
liberty to issue any other appropriate direction” until such time pending
legislation on the matter is passed... read more:
