PAUL ROGERS - US military deployments in Iraq signal the escalation of the anti-ISIS war //Juan Cole - As US/ Kurdish force Moves on ISIL at Manbij, Turkey goes Ballistic
The assault on Fallujah has begun. United
States-trained Iraqi army units supported by Shi’a militias
and Iranian military personnel are attempting to dislodge Islamic State
operatives who are deeply embedded in the Iraqi city, west of Baghdad. Some
initial reports of success by the attacking forces were quickly modified. These
are a salutary reminder of what happened in the similar assault on Ramadi in
August 2015. Then, early optimism that the city would fall in a couple of weeks
turned out to be hugely overblown. The siege ended up lasting for
more than four months, and by the end of it much of the city lay in ruins.
There are many gaps in
the current reporting.
There are no accounts of the intensity of the US air operations, nor of their
direct support of operations byShi’a militias – something that they
avoided when Tikrit fell in
April 2015. The caution is most likely because the Pentagon is only too well
aware that the Saudis are getting agitated over
the extent of Iranian involvement across their northern border, and especially
the collaboration between Washington and Tehran.
All the attention
being focused on
Fallujah carries the danger of missing another significant element in the
western media’s coverage of the war. This is the extent of the direct
involvement of US troops on the ground, not
least as casualties begin to mount.
A complex of allies
The use of special
forces is being reported occasionally in the established media. Almost always,
however, this happens when the authorities in Washington or London can feed
positive stories to friendly journalists, mostly in government-supporting
newspapers. Two other factors are less visible: the manner in which
conventional forces are now forward-based in combat-zones, and the direct
combat roles being
taken on by special forces (see "ISIS
in action: Tel Askuf decoded", 6 May 2016).
On the first issue,
President Obama stated on 26 May that three recent American casualties were
service personnel who
had died in combat: respectively a Navy SEAL, a Delta Force soldier and a
marine. The very term "death in combat" had been used before but not
by the president, so this was new. Then, on the weekend of 28-29 May, two more
US soldiers were seriouslywounded,
one in Iraq and one (a special-forces soldier) in Syria. When the Pentagon
announced the second injury, it made a departure by admitting that US ground
troops are involved directly
in combat operations in Syria.
An earlier column in
this series reported on the establishment by the marines of forward-based
artillery positions to support Iraqi army contingents as the latter tried to
move on ISIS forces defending Mosul to the north.
One American death happened there when ISIS attacked an artillery position (see
"America
vs ISIS, the prospect", 15 April 2016).
On the second issue,
another column summarised what was known about US special-force operations in
the region (see "The west's
shadow war", 31 March 2016). Since then, further information has come
to light indicating that such elite units are closely integrated with Kurdish
allies, to the extent of wearingtheir
insignia. Turkey strongly opposes association with the Kurdish force concerned,
the People’s Protection Force (YPG) militia. In Ankara's view the YPG is linked to
the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which is in armed combat with the Turkish
state... Read more:
ISIS and Israel on the Golan Heights
why would Israel,
which authorised multiple bombings on Syrian militant groups, take such a
relaxed view towards ISIS on their doorstep? Israel is focused not on ISIS and
Sunni groups, but on the Shia groups in Syria. Israel’s airstrikes have hit
Assad’s Shia-backed regime and Hezbollah, not ISIS or
al-Nusra. Correspondence between
the then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and political advisor Jacob
Sullivan about Israel’s aims in the region tried to rationalise why Israel
ignores ISIS.
In 2012 at the start
of the conflict, Sullivan said that
there was “a positive side to the civil war in Syria.” This so-called ‘positive
side’ to a war that has cost some 400,000 lives was that, “if the Assad regime
topples, Iran would lose its only ally in the Middle East and would be
isolated.” This would please Israel, which under the Netanyahu government
has
fixated on
the perceived Iranian threat. A war which destabilizes Iran’s ally, Assad,
would benefit Israeli interests. This Machiavellian belief could explain why
ISIS is not focused on. The Iranian backed Shia militias are the biggest concern
for Israel, not extremist groups such as ISIS... A senior Israel
military advisor when asked about Israeli policy in the Syrian civil war
apparently quoted Sun Tzu, saying “he will win who knows when to fight and when
not to fight.” This is a sentiment that is followed by ISIS and Israel alike.
ISIS knows it is too weak to fight Israel and Israel is concerned with enemies
it thinks are worse. The Yarmouk Valley is on one of the most contested borders
in the world, controlled by one of the most aggressive and disliked military
forces, and is next to a country notorious for being extremely conscientious
about its border security, all taking place in a warzone where violence is
expected. Despite all this, the Yarmouk Valley is still run by ISIS, left alone
by Israel and is a testament to the complex, cynical and calculated
machinations of the actors in this conflict… http://www.juancole.com/2016/05/israel-golan-heights.html
On Tuesday, according
to BBC Monitoring, the Turkish state-funded news agency Anadolu (also known as
Anatolia) put on its website in Turkish remarks of Foreign Minister Mevlut
Cavusoglu, who slammed ‘the United States for cooperating with the PYD
[Democratic Union Party] on the pretext that Al-Raqqa was going to be seized by
regime forces.” He said that US and
Turkish special ops forces would be better placed than the Kurdish YPG to close
the smuggling gap from which Daesh profits.
BBC Monitoring
translates the Anadolu report: “Criticizing the United States for collaborating
with the PYD on the pretext that Al-Raqqa was going to be seized by the Syrian
regime forces, Cavusoglu it was never right or humanitarian to collaborate with
another terrorist organization. Stating that the PYD’s goal was to partition
Syria by seizing more land, Cavusoglu said: “In that respect America is
unfortunately embarking on a process with the PYD that is very dangerous for
Syria’s future. We already warned them. Yet, if we were to join forces; they
have their special forces and we have our special forces, but unfortunately
both the United States and Russia see a terrorist organization as a partner and
they are supporting it. This is what we are objecting to . . .”
If Manbaj soon falls,
as seems likely, Turkey will face the fait accompli of a new Kurdish mini-state
on its border. Ankara is obviously furious at the US, which is urging the Kurds
on. Despite Turkish oral offers of assistance, the US Pentagon has clearly
decided that the YPG Kurds are the only game in town if the goal is to defeat
Daesh in its lair of al-Raqqa. There are likely to be long-term repercussions
for the US-Turkish relationship, on both sides, of these dramatic events...Read more:
