Bharat Bhushan - Afghanistan in transition
With the announcement of the presidential election schedule, the issue of a political transition in Afghanistan moves centrestage. Political ideology and programmes appear to be less important in this election than finding a political personality who can manage the transition successfully. In a politics normally marked by ethnic rivalries it is significant that candidates have reached out for running mates to ethnicities other than their own.
Take the case of Dr Abdullah Abdullah, a former foreign minister. The son of a Tajik mother and a Pashtun father, he is essentially considered a Tajik. His vice-presidential mates are Mohammad Khan, a Pashtun from a Hizbe-Islami faction and Haji Mohammad Mohaqiq, a Hazara Shia who leads of his own faction of the Hizbe-Wahadat party. Dr Abdullah is the only non-Pashtun presidential candidate in the fray.
Another formidable contender is Asharaf Ghani Ahmadzai — a Pashtun technocrat, who served as finance minister and was till recently chairman of the Transition Coordination Commission. His running mates are Gen. Abdul Rashid Dostum — an Uzbek and president of Jumbish-e-Milli and Mohammad Sarwar Danish, a Hazara who was the former justice minister.
Zalmai Rasoul is a Pashtun doctor from Kandahar, a former national security adviser and foreign minister. His running mates are Ahmad Zia Massoud, a Tajik, former vice-president and brother of the legendary Ahmad Shah Massoud and Habiba Surabi, a Hazara who was a former minister for women’s affairs and governor of Bamiyan.
President Karzai’s brother, Abddul Qayum Karzai, businessman and a former MP, is a Pashtun from Kandahar. His running mates are Wahidullah Shahrani, an Uzbek who was formerly the minister for mines and Ibrahim Qasimi, a Hazara who taught economics at Kabul University.
The dark horse in the race is another Pashtun, Abdul Rasoul Sayyaf — educated at Al Azar and with links to the Al Qaeda but opposed to any accommodation with the Taliban. He is the head of the Tanzim-e-Dahwat-e-Islamiy-e-
There can be no doubt that electoral compulsions are driving candidates to build bridges as ethnic votebanks are likely to be decisive in 2014. But it also reflects a democratic process of political accommodation and recognition that the power structure in Kabul has to be broad-based.
There is much speculation about which candidate has the support of the incumbent President. His tacit endorsement could bring institutional patronage to a candidate in the presidential elections. Initially Mr Karzai was rumoured to support Mr Sayyaf, then Dr Zalmai Rasoul, and now it is believed that he favours Ashraf Ghani. This support could offset Mr Ghani’s lack of a mass base. Despite Mr Ghani’s choice of Gen. Dostum as running mate, Washington could also favour his candidature as he has worked in the US and interacted with the West for long.
What might happen hypothetically, if the final contest is between one or two Pashtun candidates and Dr Abdullah? Dr Abdullah’s supporters believe that he has good chances at the hustings — he got 32 per cent of the vote in the first round when Mr Karzai sought re-election in 2009. At that time, both Gen. Dostum and Haji Mohaqiq were backing Mr Karzai. Now that Mr Mohaqiq is on Dr Abdullah’s ticket, his supporters think that he will do well.
However, Dr Abdullah needs to win 50 per cent votes in the first round. It will become more difficult for him to win in a second round as the Pashtun vote could coalesce in order to get a Pashtun elected as President. Up to now only Pashtun Durrani tribesmen have made it to the presidential palace except for Prof. Burhanuddin Rabbani, a Tajik.
The age-old narrative in Afghanistan is that only a Pashtun can rule from Kabul, and that a non-Pashtun President may not get pan-Afghan legitimacy. Parts of Afghanistan, it is feared, could land in the lap of the Taliban. So even if Dr Abdullah may claim to be ahead at present, a lot of strategic thinkers outside Afghanistan may secretly be hoping for a Pashtun President for the sake of stability.
Opposition leaders fear rigging. There are claims that 17 million voter cards have been issued against only six million voters in Afghanistan. The weather during the election will also make it difficult to monitor rigging in large parts of Afghanistan.
The proposed Bilateral Security Arrangment (BSA) between the US and Afghansitan could also impact the presidential polls. According to reports, the crucial issue is whether the US forces operating in Afghanistan after 2014 will enjoy immunity from Afghan law. This remains unresolved.
Mr Karzai’s position is that this can only be decided by a Loya Jirga or a meeting of elders which he plans to hold in the fourth week of November. This will be a traditional Loya Jirga which will include members nominated by President Karzai in addition to constitutionally elected members of both houses of Parliament, provincial council members and district council members. As there have been no district council elections, Mr Karzai is, in principle, free to further load the Loya Jirga in his favour.
There is speculation that the Loya Jirga called to discuss the BSA and immunity for US soldiers might also discuss the emerging security situation in the country. A fear that many Afghans harbour is that it may then conclude that the security situation is not conducive to hold elections in April 2014. Under these circumstances, the life of the present dispensation could be prolonged. Both Dr Abdullah and Mr Ghani want Parliament to decide on the BSA.
If the Loya Jirga paves the way for an interim government, the arrangement may get the support of some Western countries and of Pakistan — ostensibly to ensure the success of the reconciliation process with the Taliban insurgents. The next few months will indicate whether this scenario could defeat the holding of the presidential elections on schedule.
